https://www.kk1024.cn A bilingual reading site about mental models, decision making, and long-term thinking. https://www.kk1024.cn/en/articles/second-order-thinking A decision rarely stops at the first visible effect, and better judgment comes from tracing what follows next. Fri, 08 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://www.kk1024.cn/zh/articles/second-order-thinking 一个决策真正重要的部分，往往不在第一层结果，而在后面接连发生的变化。 Fri, 08 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://www.kk1024.cn/en/articles/probabilistic-thinking Better decisions start when you stop forcing certainty onto uncertain situations. Mon, 04 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://www.kk1024.cn/zh/articles/probabilistic-thinking 真正更好的决策，往往从放弃虚假的确定性开始。 Mon, 04 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://www.kk1024.cn/en/articles/circle-of-competence A practical way to know where your judgment is strong, where it is weak, and why that boundary matters. Fri, 01 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://www.kk1024.cn/zh/articles/circle-of-competence 能力圈帮助你分清哪些判断是扎实的，哪些只是看起来像判断。 Fri, 01 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT